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          "response-ev-cautious": 0.025,
          "risk-adjusted-ev": 0.05,
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          "table-image": 0.05,
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        "family_balanced_ranking": [
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          "refined-spot-on-41",
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          "refined-spot-on-04"
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        "scope": "two-player implementation-family sensitivity, not a measured human-style distribution"
      }
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  "interval_count": 5180,
  "family_size": 5180,
  "alpha": 0.05,
  "jobs": 2628,
  "games": 3377152,
  "coerced_actions": 0,
  "phase_totals": {
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      "evidence_sha256": "5bf50d031cf2763a161006d2f7cf7a2c4396645583c0b642c05f426b630dd7fa"
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  "execution_provenance": {
    "protocol_version": 1,
    "python": "3.14.7 (main, Aug  5 2026, 10:29:49) [Clang 21.0.0 (clang-2100.1.1.101)]",
    "model_revision": "2026-09-07-strategy-research",
    "sources": {
      "liars_dice_sim.py": "7b4b08eca61dabe4fed40fc05ec2a362576d452f7803a14ef73fa6d893d62608",
      "advanced_strategies.py": "7bcd8106277f2306d54947df6e6efb7763e5b74933a4612d64725716087bd822",
      "strategy_research.py": "8d176989c0205d842c23555ddee9a654e8094c5d19a54b5fcc53ff5d2516b79d"
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  "analysis_source_sha256": "1c902ddde0cbd4f8f4b0ca404dc91460b6e0e7254c7adc96f6ce6374f0caf49f",
  "policy_details": {
    "calza-disciplined": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 20.0% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 84.0% and 78.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.2,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.78,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.84,
        "pressure": 0.18,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.44
      },
      "custom_spec": null
    },
    "probability-classic-tuned": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 16.0% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 94.0% and 82.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 2.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.16,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.82,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.94,
        "pressure": 0.48,
        "bluff_chance": 0.02,
        "agree_threshold": 0.99
      },
      "custom_spec": null
    },
    "probability-spot-on-tuned": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 16.0% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 74.0% and 62.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.16,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.62,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.74,
        "pressure": 0.28,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.3
      },
      "custom_spec": null
    },
    "public-belief-search-perudo-calza-tuned": {
      "implementation_family": "PublicBeliefSearchStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 10 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 6. It weights possible hidden states using recent public bids. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.3,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.74,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.86,
        "pressure": 0.2,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.42
      },
      "custom_spec": null
    },
    "refined-calza-40": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 13.9% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 65.1% and 89.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.138797,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.889878,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.651089,
        "pressure": 0.244081,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.518187
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.518187,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.138797,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.651089,
        "pressure": 0.244081,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.889878,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "refined-classic-32": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 12.5% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 99.0% and 85.4%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.12505,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.853505,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.173247,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.533444
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.533444,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.12505,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.173247,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.853505,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "refined-no-wild-28": {
      "implementation_family": "PublicBeliefSearchStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 8. It weights possible hidden states using recent public bids. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.120129,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.62356,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.979797,
        "pressure": 0.044875,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.718133
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.718133,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.120129,
        "history_depth": 2,
        "max_candidates": 8,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.979797,
        "pressure": 0.044875,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.62356,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "public-belief-search"
      }
    },
    "refined-perudo-03": {
      "implementation_family": "ResponseEVStrategy",
      "description": "Learns how opponents respond at different bid-probability levels after dice are revealed. It averages over possible next-player hands and compares approximate dice-resource outcomes. Its call and exact thresholds shape response priors, not hard decision rules.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.186135,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.618823,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.41103,
        "pressure": 0.341472,
        "bluff_chance": 0.069905,
        "agree_threshold": 0.436287
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.436287,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.069905,
        "call_threshold": 0.186135,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.41103,
        "pressure": 0.341472,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.618823,
        "strategy": "response-ev"
      }
    },
    "refined-perudo-27": {
      "implementation_family": "ResponseEVStrategy",
      "description": "Learns how opponents respond at different bid-probability levels after dice are revealed. It averages over possible next-player hands and compares approximate dice-resource outcomes. Its call and exact thresholds shape response priors, not hard decision rules.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.298585,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.790494,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.848302,
        "pressure": 0.111669,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.403559
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.403559,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0,
        "call_threshold": 0.298585,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.848302,
        "pressure": 0.111669,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.790494,
        "strategy": "response-ev"
      }
    },
    "refined-perudo-43": {
      "implementation_family": "ResponseEVStrategy",
      "description": "Learns how opponents respond at different bid-probability levels after dice are revealed. It averages over possible next-player hands and compares approximate dice-resource outcomes. Its call and exact thresholds shape response priors, not hard decision rules.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.226318,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.75118,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.01,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.536041
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.536041,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.226318,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.01,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.75118,
        "strategy": "response-ev"
      }
    },
    "refined-perudo-calza-25": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 16.4% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 86.5% and 98.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.163753,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.98,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.865335,
        "pressure": 0.01,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.378562
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.378562,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.163753,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.865335,
        "pressure": 0.01,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.98,
        "strategy": "calza-disciplined"
      }
    },
    "refined-perudo-calza-27": {
      "implementation_family": "ResponseEVStrategy",
      "description": "Learns how opponents respond at different bid-probability levels after dice are revealed. It averages over possible next-player hands and compares approximate dice-resource outcomes. Its call and exact thresholds shape response priors, not hard decision rules.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.176556,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.784725,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.847715,
        "pressure": 0.101927,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.408865
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.408865,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0,
        "call_threshold": 0.176556,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.847715,
        "pressure": 0.101927,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.784725,
        "strategy": "response-ev"
      }
    },
    "refined-perudo-calza-29": {
      "implementation_family": "MCTSStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 8 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 8. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.200702,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.509516,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.680323,
        "pressure": 0.362984,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.73798
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.73798,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.200702,
        "max_candidates": 8,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.680323,
        "pressure": 0.362984,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.509516,
        "rollouts": 8,
        "strategy": "mcts"
      }
    },
    "refined-single-loser-agree-05": {
      "implementation_family": "MCTSStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 8. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.143065,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.521522,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.434638,
        "pressure": 0.090416,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.62646
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.62646,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.143065,
        "max_candidates": 8,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.434638,
        "pressure": 0.090416,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.521522,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "mcts"
      }
    },
    "refined-single-loser-agree-34": {
      "implementation_family": "AdaptiveSurvivalStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 17.6% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 81.2% and 84.4%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value. Challenge thresholds increase by 10 percentage points heads-up and decrease by four in multiplayer; one remaining die subtracts a further six. Raise targets decrease by 12 points heads-up and increase by three in multiplayer, subject to the policy's bounds.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.176419,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.84398,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.811917,
        "pressure": 0.448174,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.764583
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.764583,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.176419,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.811917,
        "pressure": 0.448174,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.84398,
        "strategy": "adaptive-survival"
      }
    },
    "refined-single-loser-agree-40": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 16.1% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 98.8% and 89.7%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.160864,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.897424,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.988394,
        "pressure": 0.434286,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.8
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.8,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.160864,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.988394,
        "pressure": 0.434286,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.897424,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "refined-spot-on-04": {
      "implementation_family": "PublicBeliefSearchStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 8. It weights possible hidden states using recent public bids. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.178418,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.854927,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.910797,
        "pressure": 0.120504,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.613494
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.613494,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.178418,
        "history_depth": 2,
        "max_candidates": 8,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.910797,
        "pressure": 0.120504,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.854927,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "public-belief-search"
      }
    },
    "refined-spot-on-24": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 13.4% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 90.3% and 74.2%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 1.3%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.133752,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.741531,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.902978,
        "pressure": 0.565562,
        "bluff_chance": 0.013198,
        "agree_threshold": 0.8
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.8,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.013198,
        "call_threshold": 0.133752,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.902978,
        "pressure": 0.565562,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.741531,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "refined-spot-on-28": {
      "implementation_family": "PublicBeliefSearchStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 6. It weights possible hidden states using recent public bids. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.341613,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.841291,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.960059,
        "pressure": 0.06065,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.440961
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.440961,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.341613,
        "history_depth": 4,
        "max_candidates": 6,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.960059,
        "pressure": 0.06065,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.841291,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "public-belief-search"
      }
    },
    "refined-spot-on-40": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 17.7% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 99.0% and 88.5%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.17655,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.885407,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.601379,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.8
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.8,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.17655,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.601379,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.885407,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "refined-spot-on-41": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 13.5% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 99.0% and 88.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.135128,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.879792,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.415893,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.8
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.8,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.135128,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.99,
        "pressure": 0.415893,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.879792,
        "strategy": "calza-disciplined"
      }
    },
    "research-calza-13": {
      "implementation_family": "MCTSStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 8 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 8. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.158847,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.43987,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.479184,
        "pressure": 0.361189,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.578915
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.578915,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.158847,
        "max_candidates": 8,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.479184,
        "pressure": 0.361189,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.43987,
        "rollouts": 8,
        "strategy": "mcts"
      }
    },
    "research-calza-16": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 19.9% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 40.4% and 70.7%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.198861,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.706966,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.403591,
        "pressure": 0.462769,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.604949
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.604949,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.198861,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.403591,
        "pressure": 0.462769,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.706966,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "research-calza-25": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 21.1% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 75.9% and 84.7%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.211234,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.847351,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.75927,
        "pressure": 0.402997,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.461623
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.461623,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.211234,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.75927,
        "pressure": 0.402997,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.847351,
        "strategy": "calza-disciplined"
      }
    },
    "research-classic-24": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 16.2% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 91.6% and 81.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 2.4%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.161514,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.810185,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.916355,
        "pressure": 0.110663,
        "bluff_chance": 0.023546,
        "agree_threshold": 0.501152
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.501152,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.023546,
        "call_threshold": 0.161514,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.916355,
        "pressure": 0.110663,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.810185,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "research-classic-32": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 16.9% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 75.7% and 72.4%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.169331,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.724106,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.756559,
        "pressure": 0.335115,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.23645
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.23645,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.169331,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.756559,
        "pressure": 0.335115,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.724106,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "research-classic-33": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 18.9% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 89.0% and 80.3%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 3.7%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.188507,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.803463,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.89047,
        "pressure": 0.158755,
        "bluff_chance": 0.036893,
        "agree_threshold": 0.285718
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.285718,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.036893,
        "call_threshold": 0.188507,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.89047,
        "pressure": 0.158755,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.803463,
        "strategy": "calza-disciplined"
      }
    },
    "research-classic-41": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 17.0% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 81.3% and 79.5%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.169647,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.795276,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.812704,
        "pressure": 0.132204,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.587686
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.587686,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.169647,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.812704,
        "pressure": 0.132204,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.795276,
        "strategy": "calza-disciplined"
      }
    },
    "research-no-wild-25": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 15.9% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 97.2% and 81.4%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.158837,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.81431,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.97159,
        "pressure": 0.404079,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.8
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.8,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.158837,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.97159,
        "pressure": 0.404079,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.81431,
        "strategy": "calza-disciplined"
      }
    },
    "research-no-wild-32": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 12.9% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 67.6% and 68.3%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.129336,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.683351,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.675788,
        "pressure": 0.209186,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.268084
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.268084,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.129336,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.675788,
        "pressure": 0.209186,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.683351,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "research-perudo-24": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 20.7% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 76.2% and 64.4%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 1.3%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.20685,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.643957,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.762134,
        "pressure": 0.233904,
        "bluff_chance": 0.012743,
        "agree_threshold": 0.430116
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.430116,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.012743,
        "call_threshold": 0.20685,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.762134,
        "pressure": 0.233904,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.643957,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "research-perudo-32": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 22.7% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 90.9% and 80.9%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.226554,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.80949,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.90863,
        "pressure": 0.01,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.485455
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.485455,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.226554,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.90863,
        "pressure": 0.01,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.80949,
        "strategy": "probability"
      }
    },
    "research-perudo-37": {
      "implementation_family": "MCTSStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 8. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.29435,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.802588,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.800376,
        "pressure": 0.298049,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.42869
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.42869,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.29435,
        "max_candidates": 8,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.800376,
        "pressure": 0.298049,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.802588,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "mcts"
      }
    },
    "research-perudo-45": {
      "implementation_family": "MCTSStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 8. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.21273,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.782102,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.70223,
        "pressure": 0.256455,
        "bluff_chance": 0.019652,
        "agree_threshold": 0.352933
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.352933,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.019652,
        "call_threshold": 0.21273,
        "max_candidates": 8,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.70223,
        "pressure": 0.256455,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.782102,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "mcts"
      }
    },
    "research-perudo-calza-29": {
      "implementation_family": "MCTSStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 4. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.303362,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.73636,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.707114,
        "pressure": 0.281524,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.674583
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.674583,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.303362,
        "max_candidates": 4,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.707114,
        "pressure": 0.281524,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.73636,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "mcts"
      }
    },
    "research-perudo-calza-41": {
      "implementation_family": "CalzaDisciplinedStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 24.1% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 80.3% and 79.7%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.240967,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.796765,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.803455,
        "pressure": 0.147715,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.43156
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.43156,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.240967,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.803455,
        "pressure": 0.147715,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.796765,
        "strategy": "calza-disciplined"
      }
    },
    "research-single-loser-agree-36": {
      "implementation_family": "PublicBeliefSearchStrategy",
      "description": "Uses bounded sampled next-response search with 16 rollouts per candidate and a configured raise-candidate limit of 6. It weights possible hidden states using recent public bids. This is not a full-game equilibrium solver.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.433827,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.649474,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.864692,
        "pressure": 0.096534,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.308043
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.308043,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0,
        "call_threshold": 0.433827,
        "history_depth": 4,
        "max_candidates": 6,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.864692,
        "pressure": 0.096534,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.649474,
        "rollouts": 16,
        "strategy": "public-belief-search"
      }
    },
    "research-spot-on-10": {
      "implementation_family": "AdaptiveSurvivalStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 21.1% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 66.3% and 91.3%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%. Calza is declined at the die cap and otherwise requires positive estimated recovery value. Challenge thresholds increase by 10 percentage points heads-up and decrease by four in multiplayer; one remaining die subtracts a further six. Raise targets decrease by 12 points heads-up and increase by three in multiplayer, subject to the policy's bounds.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.210705,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.913105,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.662872,
        "pressure": 0.153194,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.740358
      },
      "custom_spec": {
        "agree_threshold": 0.740358,
        "base": "bayes",
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "call_threshold": 0.210705,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.662872,
        "pressure": 0.153194,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.913105,
        "strategy": "adaptive-survival"
      }
    },
    "truthful": {
      "implementation_family": "ProbabilityStrategy",
      "description": "The base challenge threshold is 20.0% estimated bid truth. Preferred opening and raise support targets are 84.0% and 78.0%; these are preferences, not guarantees. The configured deliberate-bluff rate is 0.0%.",
      "configured_profile": {
        "call_threshold": 0.2,
        "raise_target_probability": 0.78,
        "opening_target_probability": 0.84,
        "pressure": 0.18,
        "bluff_chance": 0.0,
        "agree_threshold": 0.44
      },
      "custom_spec": null
    }
  }
}